Telling when a machine is 'due to hit' is the Holy Grail of the slot world
By Frank Legato
It's one of the most-asked questions among slot players: Which machines are due to hit? Or, how do I tell when a machine is due? Or, which machines are the best to play, right now?
How Does A Slot Machine Know When To Payouts
The know variance slot machines are often very easy to spot when you play slot machines in any playing environment, for when you look at the pay table of such slot you will notice the jackpots are not that high in value. If you don't play video poker, just know that a normal payout for a royal on a $1 machine is $4,000. The progressives are reset at $4,000 and move up as the game is played. John knew something wasn't right. Slot machines don't become due for a win when they haven't paid out in a long while, and they also don't become hot and start paying out more. Every spin is like a single coin toss or a single roll of the dice—the outcome is independent of all the outcomes prior to it. The location of the slot machine in the casino matters. In towns like Las Vegas, slot machines are everywhere, in all kinds of businesses. Every bar in the city seems to have some slot machines. The airport is full of slot machines, too. You can even find slot machines in the gas stations and convenience stores. We know one thing for certain about slot machine games in these non-casino locations.
These are not only among the most-often questions asked in letters to this and other player magazines; they are questions asked at casinos across the country, to slot attendants and floor managers: 'Where are the hot machines?'
Despite all that has been written about the workings of the modern slot machine, there is still a prevailing notion among players that these questions can be answered—that attendants can give you a hot tip on a machine that's about to hit; that some outward signs visible on a slot game can show that a machine is close to a jackpot.
Helping this notion is the wealth of 'slot system' trash available on the Internet and elsewhere, offering 'visual clues' to when a game is 'about to hit.'
The Internet 'systems' are all scams, and the notions about machines being 'due' are misguided. The reason is that a slot machine's computer is constantly selecting new results—results that have nothing to do with what the machine did three spins ago, four hours ago, for the past week or for the past year.
It all comes down to our old friend: the random number generator. A slot machine's computer contains what is basically a digital duplication of physical reels. Before the early 1980s, the probability of hitting jackpots, and their likelihood on any give spin, was tied to how many symbols and blanks—known as 'stops'—were on each physical reel. The old electro-mechanical slots had 22 stops on each reel. By logging the symbols that landed on each reel, it was possible to perform calculations that would give you the odds of a jackpot landing on a given spin.
That all changed, however, with computerization of the process. For casinos, the problem with physical stops was that the odds of hitting the top jackpot could only be as long as the number of stops on each reel would allow. The use of a random number generator allows 'virtual' reels—a computer simulation of reels containing as many symbols as the programmer desires. Numbers in the program represent each stop on each reel. If the programmer wants a low-paying or non-paying symbol—say, a blank—to appear more often, it is duplicated in the program so the random number generator selects it more often.
Thus, instead of 22 stops per reel, you may have 60 stops, hundreds of stops—as many as the programmer wishes, while staying within the odds limits set by the state. This is why odds can no longer be calculated through a formula involving the number of symbols on physical reels. The 22 symbols visible to the player no longer represent the slot machine's probabilities. They display the symbols that can lead to combinations, but there is no way for the player to know how many numbers correspond to those symbols. The more of them the computer considers there to be on a reel, the more likely it will be selected by the RNG.
The All-Important RNG
The random number generator in a slot machine is just what the name indicates—it is a software program that generates numbers at random, from the list of numbers entered to represent each reel stop. The RNG generates more than a hundred sets of numbers every second, and it generates them continuously, even when the slot machine is idle. This is why each result is independent of every other result on a slot machine. The random generation of numbers is continuous, and no one sitting at a machine can predict which of the numbers the RNG will have generated at the instant you push the spin button.
When you push the spin button, the computer takes a snapshot of the numbers generated that instant by the RNG, and translates it into a reel result. An instant before you push the button, the RNG is generating an entirely different set of numbers; an instant later, yet another set. No one looking at the slot machine can predict the number it will choose next.
This is why a slot machine can never be said to be 'due' to hit a jackpot. It is also why those systems you find on the Internet will never work.
One system circulating the Internet says that one can watch for 'patterns' on the reels of a traditional-style slot machines for clues as to when the next spin will be a jackpot, and adjust your bet accordingly. Another actually tells the player to watch the reels on a traditional slot machine for wiggling. Bet a single coin until you see the reels wiggle, then bet the max because the wiggle means a jackpot is coming.
These gimmicks are all nonsense. No 'pattern' formed by symbols in the pay window—an 'X' formed by bar symbols, for instance—is indicative of what will come next. And, 'wiggling' reels may mean that the slot machine is old and in need of repair, but nothing else. The physical reels are only there to do what the computer tells them to do. They are display mechanisms. They do the same thing as a video screen—communicate to the player the result at which the computer's RNG has arrived.
Tips from Attendants
Many players still feel that a slot attendant or other floor person who is in one location all day can tell them which machines are 'hot'—in other words, which machines are about to pay off. They will throw the employee a tip to identify a hot machine.
How Does A Slot Machine Know When To Payout
It is a waste of money. Even if a certain machine has been paying off all day, this is no indication it will continue to pay off tonight. A slot machine's cycles are not predictable.
The only thing an attendant or floor person can give you is historical information. The sole place this historical information may be useful on a slot floor is a progressive bank—one that has been in place in the same location for a long time. The useful historical information an employee can give you here is the level at which the progressive jackpot has hit on that game. If it is substantially above that, other players who are familiar with the link will give that bank of slots more play than normal—the 'jackpot fever' phenomenon. Jackpot fever pushes more coins through the game. With more changes for one of those machines to generate the winning combination, it is more likely it will hit.
More likely, but not guaranteed. And that is the vital part of my message: Even if a progressive is higher than ever before, that doesn't necessarily mean it's definitely going to hit soon. It could go higher, and even higher—and wait until well after your bankroll is gone.
By Bill Burton
Over the last year, I have heard many players complain that they are not having as many jackpots on the slot machinesas they used to have. I first heard this from a few of my friends who said they believed that the casinos were tightening the machines because the bad economy was forcing people to make fewertrips to the casino. I did not pay too much attention to this but then I started to notice other players posting the same opinions on several Internet forums.
It seems many of the players have come to believe that every casino was lowering the paybackpercentage on all of their machines.
A month ago I was contacted by a newspaper reporter from Colorado who requested an interview with me. He said he was writing a story about the casinos lowering the payback on the slot machinesthat were making it harder for the players to win. He wanted my opinion on the subject and he was surprised by my answer.
Why Players Win Fewer Jackpots
I told him I do believe that some casinos may be ordering new machines with lower payout percentages but I did not believe that this was the main reason why players may not be winning as muchas they used to. I gave him the following reasons for my answer.
Over the years there have been many myths associated with casino gambling. One of the most common ones is the belief that a casino can raise and lower a machine's payback with the flip of aswitch. This is not true because the slot machines have a computer chip in them that determines the pay back percentage. These are set at the factory.
In order for a casino to change the pay back, they would have to change the chip. In most jurisdictions, there is paperwork that has to be filled and submitted to the Casino Control Commissionfor each machine if the chip is changed. It is time-consuming and the chips are very expensive. For this reason, the cost of changing the chip in numerous machines on the casino floor does notmake economical sense.
Many of the gambling jurisdictions around the country require the casinos to report the overall payout percentages on a monthly basis. (California is not one of the States) These figures are amatter of public record and are published in some newspapers and gaming publications. I looked back on these figures over the last year and saw that there was very little change in most casinosaround the country. In some instances, there were even some of the payback percentages had increased.
A reason why some players feel that they may not be winning as often is the fact that many players are making fewer trips to the casino so they are not playing as many sessions. So because theyare playing fewer sessions they will see fewer big jackpots and fewer winning sessions overall. It is all proportional.
Some players may have decided to play lower denomination machines. Many of the nickel and penny slot machines have a higher hit frequency, which means you will have many smaller wins but not asmany big jackpots.
How To Help Your Payback Percentages
If you still honestly believe that your casino is lowering the return rate on the slot machines you have several courses of action. The easiest thing to do is to play the older machines. It isdoubtful that a casino would go through the expense of putting a new chip in an older machine to lower the return rate. You can try a new casino. You may find that your luck is better at adifferent casino and a change is your routine will let you enjoy some new experiences.
You can switch to video poker. It is the only machine game that will let you know the payback of the machine by readingthe pay table. However, if you do decide to try video poker, make sure you learn the strategy or get a strategy card to bring along with you when you play.
Switch to the table games. Playing table games is exciting and they offer a lower house edge than the slot machines. Many casinos give free table game lessons so you can learn the basics beforeyou sit down.
Let me close by saying again that I do believe that there will be some machines on the casino floors with lower returns, however, I do not believe that is as widespread as the rumors would haveyou believe. The casinos are in competition with each other for your business so they do not want to alienate the players by offering games where nobody can win.
Over the last year, I have heard many players complain that they are not having as many jackpots on the slot machinesas they used to have. I first heard this from a few of my friends who said they believed that the casinos were tightening the machines because the bad economy was forcing people to make fewertrips to the casino. I did not pay too much attention to this but then I started to notice other players posting the same opinions on several Internet forums.
It seems many of the players have come to believe that every casino was lowering the paybackpercentage on all of their machines.
A month ago I was contacted by a newspaper reporter from Colorado who requested an interview with me. He said he was writing a story about the casinos lowering the payback on the slot machinesthat were making it harder for the players to win. He wanted my opinion on the subject and he was surprised by my answer.
Why Players Win Fewer Jackpots
I told him I do believe that some casinos may be ordering new machines with lower payout percentages but I did not believe that this was the main reason why players may not be winning as muchas they used to. I gave him the following reasons for my answer.
Over the years there have been many myths associated with casino gambling. One of the most common ones is the belief that a casino can raise and lower a machine's payback with the flip of aswitch. This is not true because the slot machines have a computer chip in them that determines the pay back percentage. These are set at the factory.
In order for a casino to change the pay back, they would have to change the chip. In most jurisdictions, there is paperwork that has to be filled and submitted to the Casino Control Commissionfor each machine if the chip is changed. It is time-consuming and the chips are very expensive. For this reason, the cost of changing the chip in numerous machines on the casino floor does notmake economical sense.
Many of the gambling jurisdictions around the country require the casinos to report the overall payout percentages on a monthly basis. (California is not one of the States) These figures are amatter of public record and are published in some newspapers and gaming publications. I looked back on these figures over the last year and saw that there was very little change in most casinosaround the country. In some instances, there were even some of the payback percentages had increased.
A reason why some players feel that they may not be winning as often is the fact that many players are making fewer trips to the casino so they are not playing as many sessions. So because theyare playing fewer sessions they will see fewer big jackpots and fewer winning sessions overall. It is all proportional.
Some players may have decided to play lower denomination machines. Many of the nickel and penny slot machines have a higher hit frequency, which means you will have many smaller wins but not asmany big jackpots.
How To Help Your Payback Percentages
If you still honestly believe that your casino is lowering the return rate on the slot machines you have several courses of action. The easiest thing to do is to play the older machines. It isdoubtful that a casino would go through the expense of putting a new chip in an older machine to lower the return rate. You can try a new casino. You may find that your luck is better at adifferent casino and a change is your routine will let you enjoy some new experiences.
You can switch to video poker. It is the only machine game that will let you know the payback of the machine by readingthe pay table. However, if you do decide to try video poker, make sure you learn the strategy or get a strategy card to bring along with you when you play.
Switch to the table games. Playing table games is exciting and they offer a lower house edge than the slot machines. Many casinos give free table game lessons so you can learn the basics beforeyou sit down.
Let me close by saying again that I do believe that there will be some machines on the casino floors with lower returns, however, I do not believe that is as widespread as the rumors would haveyou believe. The casinos are in competition with each other for your business so they do not want to alienate the players by offering games where nobody can win.
As a customer/player you always have the option of taking your business elsewhere. The ultimate decision of where to play is entirely up to you.
Until next time remember, luck comes and goes.....knowledge stays forever.
